Successful merchants deal with buying and selling like a enterprise and a part of treating your buying and selling like a enterprise entails protecting a journal. While everybody has a special format and choice, I typically use an Excel spreadsheet to assist with calculations and supply organizational readability.
Crypto buyers are all the time interested in one another’s positions and usually these conversations happen in personal DMs and telegram chats. The aim right here is to supply some transparency on my buying and selling routine and I hope merchants discover the method of observing every step of each commerce academic.
Trading place sizes are redacted, however they’re all the time calculated based mostly on a 1% portfolio loss utilizing the cease loss and entry as a information.
Chainlink (LINK)
Entry: .00016499 Satoshis (sats)
Targets: .00018564 (sats) for an 11% achieve close to the highest of weekly demand zone and .000224 (sats) for a 26% achieve close to the underside of blue resistance (see chart).
I’ve positioned a cease loss at .00016064 (sats) which equates to a -2.6% loss.
It’s additionally good apply to think about the danger to reward ratio when investing, particularly with altcoins given Bitcoin’s present dominance fee. The danger to reward ratio measures the distinction between a commerce’s entry level all the best way to the stop-loss and promote or take-profit order.
Comparing these two supplies the ratio of revenue to loss, or reward to danger. For this commerce, it’s roughly 4.5 at first goal 12.6 on the second goal.
As talked about earlier, place sizes are redacted and every commerce exposing the whole portfolio to a 1% danger.
9/13/19
General evaluation
LINK caught my consideration on Sept. 9 because it was in a transparent corrective downtrend since hitting an all-time excessive. The blue zone was offering sturdy help and was successfully the underside of a descending triangle. LINK value broke down from this zone and retested it plenty of instances as resistance earlier than shifting away.
The altcoin then bounced off of the important thing help at .00016499 (sats) and finally broke down, which grew to become my first space of curiosity to commerce. The inexperienced zone was an space of day by day demand (.00014863 to .00018564 (sats)) and a break beneath this is able to be bearish, and sure result in additional value depreciation.
Entry concepts
If it breaks down right here, the primary fascinating entry can be a breakthrough .00016499 (sats) which might recapture the previous help. Ideally one wish to catch a retest, however being prepared to probably commerce the breakout with a decent cease was the thought, as LINK tends to actually transfer and punish merchants ready for a clear retest.
In hindsight, I want I might have shorted this down as I used to be very assured that value would drop after dropping the blue zone.
If LINK value broke the descending trendline it will be one thing of a definitive finish to the downtrend. A break or retest of this space would turn into a second commerce.
How it labored out
By Sept. 19 the commerce proved to be a hit. There have been 2 consecutive swing failure patterns (SFP) beneath the earlier swing low on the backside of the inexperienced vary with tweezer bottoms on the day by day chart.
Swing failure patterns are recognized when value rapidly strikes to a key swing low (or excessive for a brief), wicks beneath and closes above. This is an indicator {that a} whale has pushed value to that stage to search out liquidity to fill their orders and sometimes called “engineered liquidity.”
This was interpreted as a powerful reversal sign and was an indication that LINK was about to pump. A full place purchase order fired as value broke by way of the purple line and as talked about earlier than, I selected to play the escape with a preset restrict order.
Sell orders had been set at .000185 (sats) (50%) and .00022 (sats) which was the remaining 50% of the place. I’ve discovered that placing promote orders decrease than the targets helps to keep away from being front-run and it is a technique I make use of with all my trades.
Overall the commerce went nice. Both targets have been hit and closed 50% of the place at every goal. LINK appeared to have extra fuel within the tank however I selected to stay to the plan.
I wasn’t searching for re-entry presently however I might think about a re-entry with a retest of the purple line, or a break of the descending line talked about earlier. This commerce produced an 18% revenue.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Since topping out at $13,800, Bitcoin (BTC) has been on a little bit of a curler coaster however this doesn’t imply intraday and swing trades can’t be capitalized on. My targets have been set at $9,700 by way of $10,028 and thought entries have been at $9,367 and $9,321.
The danger to reward was 3.1 for the primary goal and 11.5 for the second goal. A stop-loss was positioned at $9,260 which equates to a 1.14% and 0.65% loss if that area is hit.
General evaluation
I chart Bitcoin (BTC) greater than every other asset, so I’m properly tuned to its basic motion. Importantly, as an American, I don’t commerce on any leveraged alternate since I don’t belief them. This means I lack the power to quick regardless that Kraken available. I merely don’t belief the provision of margin or the “scam wicks” which are usually seen liquidating and stopping out unassuming merchants.
Bitcoin value has been slowly dropping for days and round Sept 24 it regarded able to fall off of a cliff. That stated, there’s a superb danger/reward for a protracted if that is the underside however one would wish a decent cease.
This is a transparent scenario of “buying support.” The solely subject is that the help has been examined a number of instances which tends to make it weaker. The nearer to help the higher entry to tighten up the cease loss. The channel can also be unconfirmed on the backside and the resistance on the high is obvious.
The purple line represents a earlier swing low and I would like nothing to do with any candle closes beneath this line as a result of it should clearly invalidate my premise.
Entry thought
The confluence of a key help from the earlier swing low ($9,321) and the underside of the potential channel represents a do or die level and it is rather simple to chop bait with a decent cease if this goes the fallacious means.
The danger is having a cease loss hearth and this stage turning into an SFP with only a wick beneath the purple line. That can be brutal and has occurred many instances. Setting the cease at $9,260 offers about $60 of leeway beneath the help for an errant wick.
I made a decision to unfold the orders in a circle and the primary wick down stuffed about 70% of the orders and was adopted by a pleasant bounce. I believed which will have been the top of the dump there, however the remainder of my orders stuffed on the purple line.
Not perfect, I might have quite had the orders all fill on the primary drop. The indisputable fact that the worth bounced and returned to help is bearish however I’m sticking to my plan.
How it labored out
The commerce was a complete prepare wreck. That was the quickest that I’ve been stopped out of a commerce in a very long time, in all probability beneath 5 minutes from the second entry. Bitcoin value hit the purple line and dumped by way of it in epic style.
Clearly this was a completely terrible learn on the chart, however fortunately a decent cease loss helped to mitigate losses. This would have been extraordinarily ugly with out a tight cease, because it ended up being one of many largest purple candles in latest Bitcoin reminiscence. This commerce led to a lack of 0.9%.
One factor that may be taken away from this expertise is that protecting a journal permits a dealer to backtest and evaluate candle patterns and help / resistance ranges with out affirmation bias. This improves the power to execute and handle future trades.
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